NEWTON SQUARE, PA – Fourteen of the last 15 Wannamaker winners were within two shots of the lead entering the final round. The lone exception, Justin Thomas at Southern Hills in 2022, who was seven shots back.
If we go seven shots back on the current PGA Championship leaderboard, it includes 46 golfers. Five shots back includes 29 names. Kerry Haigh and the Championship Team have set us up for a sensational Sunday.
LEADERBOARD: Follow live scoring from Aronimink
The easy thing to do would be to hit the H2H and placement markets to collect a couple of winning tickets, but this is a major championship. It’s time to chase a couple of these contenders and see if we can find a winner out of this eclectic assortment at Aronimink.
Alex Smalley has never held the 54-hole lead of an officially sanctioned OWGR tournament. In layman's terms, Smalley is in uncharted career waters. Our favorite on the odds board is two strokes back, Jon Rahm (+465). Smalley is next, and much of that has to do with his two-shot lead. Next is a group of heavyweight names with proven success in the spotlight: Ludvig Åberg (+600), Rory McIlroy (+760), and Xander Schauffele (+1225). The world’s No. 1 player, Scottie Scheffler, is five shots back and +1650.
Alex Smalley will most likely not even hold the lead once he tees off at 2:35 pm ET. We saw this yesterday when several players posted very low front-nine scores. The final round hole location sheet shows scoring opportunities, especially on the final few holes. So, the drama and pressure on the back nine should be a true test of mettle that ultimately crowns a very deserving champion.
My eyes are drawn to three names — all sitting three shots back — who have the experience to meet that moment. Rory, Xander, and Patrick Reed (+1900). These three will be playing four or five groups in front of the leader(s) and will be able to set the tone for Sunday. McIlroy has proven to us he is only interested in major championships. Rory’s putter and driver are competing this week, and those two clubs can be enough at Aronimink. Xander has taken the same path to victory. If either of these two has an excellent approach day in the final round, watch out. Reed has taken a different route. Patrick’s proximity to the hole has been excellent. Approach plus an all-around short game and putter have placed him firmly in the conversation.
What to do? My strategy will be to pick one favorite and one “longer” shot on the leaderboard. With so many contenders, getting past the group at -3 seems like a stretch. I’m going to grab a ticket on Rory (+760) and Reed (+2100) to win and then sit back and watch. One other bet I would take is a playoff (+215). The field has not been able to separate, and Sunday pressure on this course will not help even the best players differentiate.
A simple, outright card, and one prop bet to play during the final round of the 108th PGA Championship.
