How to Rebound, Win PGA Bets Over the Weekend
Has your favorite missed the cut at the PGA Championship? Please don’t panic, unlike those outside the top 70 and ties, you don’t have to pack up and leave for the weekend. Oak Hill has shown its teeth for two rounds as only nine players remain under par after 36 holes. While Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick and last week’s winner Jason Day are looking ahead to the U.S. Open, here’s a how-to-guide on building a betting card to win some weekend wagers.
Let’s first start with our recovery strategy. No impulsive decision was ever the right one, so don’t chase. Instead, follow these three steps:
· Stick to your budget: You should have started the week with a betting budget in mind. If you are behind, don’t double the risk and try to win every penny back. Only risk what you are comfortable with.
· Don’t chase: Instead of picking a bunch of long-odds bets, diversify your weekend approach and win by accumulating a couple placement and H2H matchup wins. If there’s one outright that makes sense, that’s OK too.
· Modify your approach: Pre-tournament, we believed strokes gained off the tee was going to be the No. 1 skill needed to contend. After two rounds, approach play has applied more influence on the leaderboard than off the tee. Going forward, make sure you adjust your selections accordingly.
With those three points in mind, here are the player profiles I have my eyes on halfway to the trophy.
· The top five tee to green (SG:T2G) in the field are: Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka and Justin Suh.
· The top five on approach (SG:APP) in the field are: Viktor Hovland, Sepp Straka, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Stephan Jaeger.
Based upon 36-holes of observation and analytics going into the weekend, here are a couple of recommendations.
· Rory McIlroy sits five back and his odds to win have increased to +2200 (FanDuel). He started the week at +1000, so with just two rounds to go and in contention, getting more than double the return on one of the world’s best is a great opportunity. Not to mention, he lit up the post round interview stage when he said he was going to hit driver all weekend!
· The No. 1 player in the world made a big move today. Jon Rahm was the third best tee to green player in the field in round two. DraftKings is offering +105 odds for him to finish inside the top 20. That’s just three strokes away (T19 +1) with two rounds to go for the best iron player on the planet.
· Corey Conners is in the top 10 for his ball striking and top 5 for putting. Keith Mitchell is doing it with just the driver and putter. Take Conners over Mitchell on Draftkings (-120) in the third-round matchup.
Keith Stewart, PGA covers the PGA TOUR and LPGA from a betting perspective. Published by Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and PGA TOUR, Keith is also the founder of a golf betting media company called Read The Line.
The Professional Golfers’ Association of America (“PGA”) is not an online gambling operator, and PGAChampionship.com is not a gambling site of any kind. Odds are provided for information and entertainment purposes only. Odds were sourced from FanDuel and DraftKings and last updated 9 p.m. EST May 19, 2023. PGA makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of information given.