The last time the PGA Championship visited Oak Hill, a mid-tier betting odds player won the Wanamaker Trophy. Jason Dufner was a pre-tournament +3000 (30-1) to win the on the East Course. In the last 10 years, we’ve seen five winners at +3000 or higher win. Looking at the middle tier of the odds board I can’t help but share these three players who are having incredible seasons.
· Jason Day (+2800) just showed why he has been in contention all year. With a win on Sunday in Dallas, the former world No. 1 has found the form that helped him capture the 2015 PGA Championship. Much will be made of hitting the ball high, a trait Day’s game has off the tee and on approach. Combine that with the second-ranked short game in the field and you can see why he’s first in bogey avoidance.
Day’s career wins have always come in bunches. As the best par-4 scoring player in Rochester, he will have a significant advantage with so many difficult par 4s over 72 holes.
· When it comes to hard courses, Tyrrell Hatton (+4600) tends to show up. In 2023, he has finished runner-up at THE PLAYERS, third at Wells Fargo, and fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hatton has always been a great putter, but now he has the ball striking skills to contend for major championships. He is ranked sixth in this field for strokes gained tee-to-green (SG:T2G) and has gained nearly three strokes against the field off-the-tee (OTT) in his last five starts.
The weather will be an experience this week. The damp cold climate of the Great Lakes is going to be much like his home country of England. I love an edge like that going into a week like this.
· Any ball-striking contest should always include Tommy Fleetwood (+5500). The talented Tommy has gained 7.4 strokes total against the field in his last five starts. Controlled power will be a common theme when the players try and survive this beast of a course. Fleetwood has been incredibly consistent throughout his major career. In 24 starts, he has a 71.18 scoring average and eight top 20s.
Fleetwood’s fifth place at Southern Hills last year showed us he can handle the spotlight. With an even tougher test this year, I believe that great ball striking gets him even closer to winning his first major championship.
Keith Stewart, PGA covers the PGA TOUR and LPGA from a betting perspective. Published by Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and PGA TOUR, Keith is also the founder of a golf betting media company called Read The Line.
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