Who to Bet on Making a Run in the Final Round
Golf betting is all about the Sunday sweat. This popular phrase describes the feeling you have during the final round. When you are financially tied to one of the leaders and you feel the butterflies just as the guy who is carrying your hopes on the course. Arguably, since we don’t know the feeling of walking up that fairway, this is why fans love to throw a wager on their favorite player or prediction.
As the final round of the 105th PGA Championship plays out at Oak Hill, how can we prepare to pick the winner. Some love to bet the final day, and others stick with their current card. In either case, here’s a quick breakdown of who has the best chance to win the Wanamaker Trophy.
The East Course has been an amazing examination. Earlier in the week, we described how the contenders would emerge. A careful and consistent tee to green approach was the blueprint for success. After 54 holes the strongest indicator is the driver. The top 20 players on the leaderboard include eight of the top nine listed in strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT). Find the fairway and your player could be well on his way to winning.
If you look past the analytics and just pay attention to history, I think we can separate Sunday’s contenders. Since 2017, Brooks Koepka has the lowest scoring average in major championships (70.12). In 22 starts, Koepka has finished in the top-10 10 times. Even with all the injuries he has battled, Koepka has been the most consistent competitor in golf’s grandest stages.
Hold the mobile phone, and don’t place that bet quite yet because closely behind Koepka is Scottie Scheffler. He has the second lowest scoring average in that time. Scheffler’s average (70.35) has led to seven top 10s in 13 starts. Can he make a run-on Sunday and come from four back to catch Brooks?
I don’t think so, and here is why. Over the last five years Brooks Koepka has the lowest par-70 scoring average on the PGA TOUR. Scottie Scheffler doesn’t even make the top 10 on that list. Koepka’s ability to score on par 3s and 4s really differentiates him from the field. Especially under the East Course’s difficult conditions.
If you Read The Line then you already bet Koepka to win. If you didn’t select him pre-tournament, Scheffler represents your best chance to hedge. At +850 on FanDuel his odds to win are higher than when he started the championship (+750)! The beauty of Sunday appears as the day unfolds. Each high and low makes the final round feel like a lifetime. Enjoy the entertainment, stay engaged and remember the best part of joining the betting party is that we can do it all again next week.
Keith Stewart, PGA covers the PGA TOUR and LPGA from a betting perspective. Published by Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and PGA TOUR, Keith is also the founder of a golf betting media company called Read The Line.
The Professional Golfers’ Association of America (“PGA”) is not an online gambling operator, and PGAChampionship.com is not a gambling site of any kind. Odds are provided for information and entertainment purposes only. Odds were sourced from FanDuel and last updated 8 p.m. EST May 20, 2023. PGA makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of information given.