PGA Championship 2026: 3 Stats to Consider When Picking A Winner

NEWTON SQUARE, PA – Aronimink Golf Club has an eye-popping 180 bunkers. Imagine being a member at this famous Philadelphia golf course and playing this par 70, 7,394-yard layout all the time. Thankfully, only the competitors in this 156-man field have to play it from 7,400 yards, but guess what? All 180 bunkers are still in play.

Nestled along the Philadelphia Main Line is a perfect piece of terrain. Brought to life by Donald Ross in 1928 and restored in 2016 by Gil Hanse, 300 acres of grass, sand, and trees form one of the most beautiful parkland settings in golf. What makes this Ross design really stand out is the setting. A ridgeline runs through the property, creating numerous terrain changes. Players will have to contend with blind tee shots, uphill, sidehill, and downhill approach lies, and a seemingly infinite number of diabolical short-game scenarios. If you’re like me and you are trying to figure out who will win the PGA Championship, then what skills stand out as we watch players prepare for the season’s second major championship?

The last time the PGA Championship was played at Aronimink GC was 1962, and Gary Player won. Don’t worry, the PGA TOUR visited AGC in 2010, 2011, and 2018. In those events, we have modern performance data. Here are three keys that stand out when looking through those three tournaments.

We have to start on the putting surfaces. The average green size is 8,200 sq/ft. That’s large by PGA TOUR standards. What is small? At Pebble Beach, the average green size is 3,500 sq/ft. Large Donald Ross greens are going to test you. Lag or approach putting, speed control, and making putts under 6’ are going to be essential skills. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship here in 2018, 62% of his strokes gained were with the flatstick. Good putters will have an edge, and due to the severity of these green complexes, finding your stroke may be impossible across these (at times) silly surfaces.

Traditional layouts like Aronimink test iron play across the bag. Although we won’t see a bunch of mid-iron approaches (150-200 yards), there will be plenty of wedge shots and long irons, especially on the par 3s. Combining those two approach skill sets will make narrowing down the field easier. Only the best iron players in the world have elite proximity with their scoring irons and shots over 215 yards. Fourteen of the 18 approach shots come from these two polar ranges. When you consider the size of each green and the number of sections they have, proximity plays a huge role as well. In 2018, the field hit an average of 77.4% of their GIRs. That’s 11% above the TOUR average. Long irons, wedges, and tons of proximity, that’s what we are looking for on approach.

PGA Coaches love to look at scorecards. What catches your attention quickly at Aronimink is the absence of two par 5s. With a par 70 total, AGC tests you with 12 par 4s. The best par 4 players this week will have a chance to win the PGA Championship. From the reachable 13th to the country-mile-long 15th, the variety of shots required defines your chances of winning. Surprise, surprise, Scottie Scheffler leads the PGA TOUR in par 4 scoring. Robert MacIntyre, Cameron Young, Akshay Bhatia, and Si Woo Kim round out the top 5. Pay special attention to these players as their ability to handle Aronimink’s long and short situations will bolster their chances of contending.

With 180 bunkers, endless uneven lies, and a really difficult closing stretch of holes, the 108th PGA Championship is set up to be as entertaining as ever. Enjoy the event, and hopefully these insights give you the edge needed when picking who you believe will hoist the Wanamaker on Sunday.