NEWTON SQUARE, PA – We’re two days in, and we still have no idea who will take home the Wannamaker trophy. Eighty-two players made the cut in the 108th PGA Championship. All 82 are within eight shots of the lead. All 82 could hypothetically have a chance to win (The largest 54-hole comeback is 7 shots — accomplished twice).
Before you get lost in sixty players’ plus worth of strokes gained charts, let’s step back and look for value in the betting market. Here are a couple of ways I plan to attack wagering this weekend at Aronimink.
LEADERBOARD: Follow live scoring from Aronimink
Scottie Scheffler started the week at approximately +400. Scheffler currently sits at +340 with 36-holes under his belt. Scottie’s odds haven’t changed, and with two rounds to go, he is two shots off the lead. Never bet Scheffler at the start of a tournament. Wait and see how the week develops. There are times when Scottie’s odds lose value after one or two rounds, and that’s the risk you have to take when you are trying to wager on the best player in the world. There have been 13 times in Scheffler’s career when he was inside the top 10 after 36 holes in a major championship; he won four of them. The last two? The 2025 PGA Championship and 2025 Open Championship. The iron play is very good, and so is the value on the defending champion.
Looking for a little larger return? Take two-time PGA Champion Justin Thomas (+2100). JT’s ball striking has been elite lately, and the putter has been the problem. Since switching to a new flatstick in Charlotte, Thomas has gained on the greens in six straight rounds. Tenth in the field on approach after two rounds and just two strokes back, only Scottie has more major championships to his name inside the top 10 on this leaderboard.
Harris English finished runner—up in two major championships last year (PGA Championship, Open Championship). When the going gets tough, Harris gets going. English’s approach game is on point, and the putter always seems to work when the greens are challenging. At +175, Harris holds some value in the top 10 market. A proven contender in Northeast major championships and a PGA TOUR winner in Connecticut, Harris has a solid chance to hold on to that top 10 position after another 36-holes.
There are a number of great pairings in round three: Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele. But the biggest names don’t always give us the best H2H chance to win. I like the penultimate pairing of Hideki Matsuyama and Chris Gotterup (2:30 pm ET). Matsuyama is a Masters winner and the favorite in this H2H matchup (-122). Don’t go to sleep on the nearby New Jersey native Chris Gotterup (-104). Gotterup is ninth on the PGA TOUR in Saturday scoring average and ranked 14th in this field Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green after two rounds. Matsuyama has made it to the top 3 as well this week by some brilliant ball striking, but his Saturday scoring average is more than a half stroke higher than Gotterup’s. Little edges lead to winning tickets. Take the local guy who will ultimately make more putts on greens he is confident on.
