PGA Championship 2026: Who Is The Favorite To Win?

NEWTON SQUARE, PA – Who is the favorite to win the 108th PGA Championship?

The odds board succinctly shows Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite. Scheffler is, without a doubt, the best player in the world, but is he the favorite to win at Aronimink Golf Club?

Surely the back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy should be considered as a candidate in this conversation. How about THE PLAYERS winner, Cameron Young, who just sprinted past a signature field by six strokes at Trump National Doral? The “favorite” conversation contains a little recency bias. Let’s break this down.

To find the favorite, we first must consider the course fit. Aronimink Golf Club requires a couple of specific skills to contend. Originally designed by Donald Ross, these green complexes have a ton of character. The venue is unique from tee to green, but the putting surfaces are super slick. Partly speed, but also incredibly subtle to read. When the PGA TOUR visited AGC in 2010, 2011, and 2018, putting was a separating skill. With an average green size of 8,200 sq/ft, players will have some healthy approach putts. Of the “big three,” Scheffler and Young are both gaining strokes on the field with their flatstick for the 2026 PGA TOUR season.

The second player attribute to focus on is proximity to the hole. With enormous green surfaces, think of differentiating yourself with proximity rather than simple approach analytics. Whether it is a 240+ yard par 3 or a flip wedge into one of these medium par 4s, creating birdie chances with your iron game is essential. Rory and Cameron are both in the top 20 on TOUR, and surprisingly, Scheffler has struggled. Does that create an opportunity for someone else to impede Scottie’s PGA title defense?

Aronimink’s par 70 scorecard removes two par 5s and replaces them with a couple of par 4s. Whether you are playing the 546-yard fifteenth hole or the drivable 13th, the players who can take advantage of the 12 par 4s will differentiate themselves from the field over four days. Scheffler, McIlroy, and Young are all inside the top 5 for par 4 scoring this season. Are you starting to sense a theme? I can continue to mention specific skills that will allow players to excel at Aronimink, and 90% of the time, Scottie, Rory, and Cam will be better than the field.

If these three are essentially equal, is there a favorite? My answer is no. Each has played exceptionally this year. Instead of trying to differentiate them by skill, what if we considered value? Scottie Scheffler currently sits at +450 on the odds board. Rory McIlroy (+900) and Cameron Young (+1500) are the next two players listed. If they are equal, then Young has the most value at three times Scheffler’s odds. Sometimes selecting a clear favorite can be impossible. This is one of those cases. When that happens, compare value over characteristics, and you might find it easier to pick a favorite.